Previous Week Events:

Last week, the Dec25 EUA contract registered a total loss of 7.3%, following a 1.7% daily gain on Friday. These movements occurred ahead of the German election and in the context of ongoing US-Russia discussions regarding the conflict in Ukraine. This marked a significant correction for EUA prices, which have been on an uptrend since December, 2024.

For this week, there is a chance for continued price volatility, driven by US-led discussions around a potential end to the Ukrainian conflict and the imposition of new US tariffs. At the same time, EU gas reserves are approaching critically low levels (30%), which could drive natural gas demand upward, especially if colder than expected weather occurs. Given these factors, there is a potential scenario that EUA prices remain volatile this week, as the market awaits new developments around the Ukrainian conflict, tariffs and the weather.

Auction volume: 11.3  million EUAs, the same as last week

Energy Fundamentals

• Gas storage sits at 40.5% full on February 23rd.
• A positive evolution of peace talks for the Russia-Ukraine conflict could lead to a further drop in the energy markets.
• The conservative CDU has won the German election, with Friedrich Merz set to become chancellor. AfD, the far right group, has won a record 20.8% of votes, the highest amount since the Second World War.
• EU advisors are pushing for the integration of CO2 removals within the EU ETS.
• Trump says he will introduce new 25% tariffs on automobiles, pharmaceuticals and microchips.
• Foreign leaders visit Ukraine’s capital to show their support, as today marks 3 years since the start of the war.
• The EU Commission is working towards the full energy market integration of Ukraine, in support of the latter’s energy security.
• The US energy council chief wants power plants to produce 15% more electricity, to fuel the energy needs of AI.

Investment Funds .

• Investment funds increased their net long position to +58.67m EUAs on February 14th (vs. +60.49m EUAs on February 7th).
• Gross short positions increased to -46.2m EUAs (vs. -43.35m EUAs).
• Gross long positions increased to 104.87m EUAs (vs. 103.84m  EUAs).

Market Prices:

• Indicative Dec25 EUA Price: €72,81
• Indicative Spot EUA Price: €71.0.8
• YTD Spot EUA Price: €76.47
• MTD Spot EUA Price: €77.038

Chart A: December 2025 EUA Price (EUR)

Technical Analysis

On the daily chart, the Dec25 benchmark contract is currently trading below its 50% Fibonacci Retracement (from 18.12.204) level at €74.28, just above the lower Bollinger Band at €72.13. The price is below both the MA 20 (€79.38) and the MA 50 (€76.04), but just above its MA 100 (€72.15). The CCI is in oversold territory, and the RSI has just risen above its oversold level, suggesting potential for continued upward movement. If the price increases, the first resistance to watch is €74.28 (50% Fibonacci), followed by €76.04 (MA 50) and €76.70 (38.2% Fibonacci). Should the price move lower, key support lies at the lower end of the Bollinger bands and MA 100 at €72.15, followed by the 61.8% Fibonacci level at €71.87 and the 50% Fibonacci level at €67.25 on the larger Fibonacci Retracement (from 23.02.2024) on the chart.

Chart B: December 2025 EUA Price (EUR) - Technical

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