Previous Week Events:

Last Friday, the EUA Dec25 contract settled 2% higher, marking a total weekly decline of 3%. Looks like gas and fundamentals were the main drivers for this move.

Looking ahead to the upcoming week, EUA prices may trade sideways with a bearish bias. With limited fundamental factors driving EUA prices, they could once again follow TTF movements, which are influenced by global trends. Weather conditions will also play a role; if colder-than-expected temperatures occur, it could push prices higher. However, other fundamentals are leaning neutral to bearish.

Auction volume: 13.4  million EUAs, 2.1 million more than last week

Energy Fundamentals

• Gas storage sits at 44.5% full on February 15th.
• Wind generation could be increased for this week - it could help Europe with TTF spendings
• All eyes are on Ukrainian - Russian peace deal
• China seeks stronger cooperation with Germany and EU
• Germany Set to Scale Down Climate Ambitions With Funding Frozen
• US LNG project receives export license and new energy council formed
• Natural Gas in America are predicted to fall which could extend losses on TTF

Investment Funds

• Investment funds increased their net long position to +60.49m EUAs on January 31st (vs. +55.57m EUAs on January 31st).
• Gross short positions decreased to -43.35m EUAs (vs. -43.55m EUAs).
• Gross long positions increased to 103.84m EUAs (vs. 99.11m  EUAs).

Market Prices:

• Indicative Dec25 EUA Price: €79.24
• Indicative Spot EUA Price: €77.36
• YTD Spot EUA Price: €77.03
• MTD Spot EUA Price: €79.103
  

Chart A: December 2025 EUA Price (EUR)

Technical Analysis

On the daily chart, the MACD indicates a continued bearish trend, while the RSI still has room to reach the overbought zone. It's important to note that the hourly chart suggests the price may not move straight down; instead, there could be a brief recovery before continuing its downward path. Key levels to watch on the daily chart for the DEC25 contract are 78.06, 76.75, and the significant 75.67 level, with resistance at 81.09, 84.12, and the high of 84.50. If the price doesn't break above 84.50, the market is likely to remain neutral to bearish.

Chart B: December 2025 EUA Price (EUR) - Technical

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