Previous Week Events:

Last Friday, the EUA Dec25 contract settled 0.4% higher, marking a total weekly decline of 1.8%. Correlation with Dutch TTF was weak, as the latter extended past its 18-month high on Friday.

For the week ahead, there is a possibility that EUA prices might continue moving upward due to strong bullish momentum across all energy markets. This momentum is driven by new US tariffs on steel and aluminum, which are strengthening market uncertainty, and by EU gas reserves being significantly lower on a YoY basis. As a result, the EU will likely maintain strong demand for Dutch TTF. Given that energy markets are experiencing a strong bullish momentum, we expect EUAs to follow suit, especially if the Dec25 contract moves above its 15-month high at €84.51.

Auction volume: 11.3  million EUAs, 2.1 million less than last week

Energy Fundamentals

• Gas storage sits at 48.6% full on February 9th.
• Donald Trump said he would announce a 25% tax on all steel and aluminum entering the US.
• Donald Trump announced he spoke to Vladimir Putin multiple times about ending the war in Ukraine, citing a good relationship.
• Germany’s election frontrunners discuss a potential nuclear comeback, as energy prices soar.
• The Baltic States fully joined the European continental electricity grid, completely disconnecting from Russia and Belarus.
• The EU seeks to drastically simplify CBAM and exempt a significant number of companies from it.
• Dutch TTF front-month natural gas continues its rally, moving close to its two year high.
• Oil prices rise on news of new US tariffs.

Investment Funds

• Investment funds increased their net long position to +55.57m EUAs on January 31st (vs. +53.04m EUAs on January 24th).
• Gross short positions decreased to -43.55m EUAs (vs. -41.01m EUAs).
• Gross long positions increased to 99.11m EUAs (vs. 94.05m  EUAs).

Market Prices:

• Indicative Dec25 EUA Price: €83.72
• Indicative Spot EUA Price: €81,70
• YTD Spot EUA Price: €76.70
• MTD Spot EUA Price: €79.43

Chart A: December 2025 EUA Price (EUR)

Technical Analysis

On the daily chart, the Dec25 EUA contract is currently trading just below its 15-month high at €84.51. EUA prices are currently trading above their MA 20 (€80.78), MA 50 (€74.70), and MA100 (€71.18). Both the CCI and RSI oscillators are slightly below overbought levels, indicating potential for a further upside in the short to medium term. This is also supported by strong momentum, as a move above €84.51 would push EUA prices above their 15-month high. If this occurs, we can expect a move toward €85, a strong psychological level of support. If that happens, the next key level to watch is €87.50. If the price changes direction, it could potentially approach the middle of the Bollinger Bands (€80.81) and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at €79.90.

Chart B: December 2025 EUA Price (EUR) - Technical

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