Previous Week Events:

Last week, the Dec25 EUA contract reached its 15-month high on Thursday, hitting €84.50. The contract posted a 1.5% daily gain, a 2.8% weekly increase, and a total 15% increase for the month of January.

For this week, increased volatility is expected to persist across energy markets, as the effects of US tariffs and the countermeasures announced by Canada, Mexico and China weigh heavily on the market. The US may also impose tariffs on the EU and the UK, which adds another layer of uncertainty. Additionally, as the conflict in Ukraine continues, new measures from the US targeting Russia could pressure the country into de-escalating the conflict. With the global economic and geopolitical situation remaining tense, energy markets are likely to react strongly to any new developments.

Auction volume: 13.4  million EUAs, 2.1 million more than last week

Energy Fundamentals

• Gas storage sits at 53.1% full on February 1st.
• Trump states that EU tariffs will be implemented soon and that a deal might be reached with the UK.
• Ukraine attacks major oil and gas facilities in southern Russia.
• New tariffs by Trump towards Canada, Mexico and China.
• Tariffs are causing mixed signals on energy markets.
• The EU removes the current energy crisis gas price cap, currently set at 180€ / MWh
• Ukraine rejects being excluded from US-Russia peace talks, stating that it  is a ‘very dangerous’ move.
• Norway’s governing coalition breaks over an energy laws dispute.
• The Dutch TTF Front-month contract reached its highest level since October 2023.
• Oil prices rise on news of tariffs, but movement could be temporary as global growth might slow.

Investment Funds

• Investment funds increased their net long position to +53.04m EUAs on January 24th (vs. +41.86m EUAs on January 17th).
• Gross short positions decreased to -41.01m EUAs (vs. -37.23m EUAs).
• Gross long positions increased to 94.05m EUAs (vs. 79.21m  EUAs).

Market Prices:

• Indicative Dec25 EUA Price: €82.94
• Indicative Spot EUA Price: €80.89
• YTD Spot EUA Price: €76.09
• MTD Spot EUA Price: €76.09

Chart A: December 2025 EUA Price (EUR)

Technical Analysis

The Dec25 EUA contract is currently trading below its 0% Fibonacci retracement level at €84.50, which marks the price’s 15-month high. Since then, EUA prices have decreased but are still trading above their 20-day moving average (€78.95), 50-day moving average (€73.63), and 100-day moving average (€70.35). With the CCI in overbought territory and the RSI just below overbought levels, there is a possibility that the price might continue to retrace from its recent highs over the course of the week, potentially moving closer to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at €79.70. However, caution is advised, as energy markets are expected to remain highly volatile throughout the week.

Chart B: December 2025 EUA Price (EUR) - Technical

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