Previous Week Events:

In the previous week, EUA prices posted a 3% increase, settling 1.1% higher on Friday. The correlation between EUAs and Dutch TTF remained weaker throughout the week.

Looking ahead, there is a potential scenario in which EUAs might trade in a sideways range, as the EU gas reserve is at historically low levels and expectations are high that the EU will significantly ramp up LNG imports through 2025. This is further emphasized by the significant increase in long positioning by investment funds. On the other hand, a downward movement might occur if Hungary vetoes the renewal of EU sanctions on Russia, which could happen before January 31st. This could also be exacerbated by a delay in the CBAM, which would lead to an increase in the EU ETS free allocation until the new implementation date.

Auction volume: 11.3  million EUAs, 2.2 million less than last week

Energy Fundamentals

• Gas storage sits at 55.8% full on January 26th.
• Hungary threatens to veto the EU’s imposition of sanctions on Russia, which have to be reapplied on the 31st of January.
• NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte states that the EU must replace the US in terms of aid for Ukraine.
• In 2024, solar generation overtook coal generation in the EU for the first time in history.
• The European Steel Association calls for urgent improvement to the CBAM,
• The EPP proposes delaying the implementation of CBAM until 2028.
• Repsol states that gas prices could increase by 30% in 2025, caused by the EU’s low storage levels.
• Based on a new IEA report, in 2025, Europe is expected to import 16% more LNG than in 2024.
• Italy is expected to significantly expand its nuclear power capacity by the end of 2027.
• Oil prices decline as Trump reiterates its call for OPEC+ to drop prices.

Investment Funds

• Investment funds increased their net long position to +42.08m EUAs on January 10th (vs. +29.05m EUAs on January 10th).
• Gross short positions decreased to -37.23m EUAs (vs. -39.52m EUAs).
• Gross long positions increased to 79.21m EUAs (vs. 68.57m  EUAs).

Market Prices:

• Indicative Dec25 EUA Price: €80.08
• Indicative Spot EUA Price: €77.92
• YTD Spot EUA Price: €75.03
• MTD Spot EUA Price: €75.03
  

Chart A: December 2025 EUA Price (EUR)

Technical Analysis

‍From a technical perspective, the Dec25 EUA contract is currently trading just below its 0% Fibonacci retracement level at €82. It is trading above its 50-day moving average (72.50), 100-day moving average (69.68), and 20-day moving average (76.91). If the price surpasses the €82 level, further upside movement could be expected, with €85 as a potential target. However, since the price is currently above its moving averages and both the RSI and CCI oscillators are in overbought territory, there is a possibility the price could move downwards, closer to its 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at €77.76.

‍Chart B: December 2025 EUA Price (EUR) - Technical

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