Previous Week Events:

Last week, EUAs posted a total weekly gain of 5.9%, following a 1.2% price increase on Friday. This movement has broken the former’s short-term correlation with Dutch TTF.

This week, energy markets may experience significant volatility following the inauguration of Donald Trump and the potential imposition of tariffs. Furthermore, as a cold snap continues in Europe, the EU’s gas storage levels have continued to deplete significantly on a year-over-year basis. However, with EUA prices currently at their highest levels in a year, there is also a possibility that sellers will enter the market, leading to a potential pullback throughout the week. We expect news on weather and U.S. policy chances to have a significant impact on the market throughout the week.

Auction volume: 13.5  million EUAs, 1.75 million more than last week

Energy Fundamentals

• Gas storage sits at 60.3% full on January 19th.
• Trump’s inauguration could increase the volatility in the Energy field.
• Possibility of Europe struggling to buy gas from the US
• Data from Kepler shows the EU imported a record amount of LNG from Russia in 2025, despite the stop of natural gas flow via Ukraine.
• Germany’s potential chancellor Friedrich Merz states that a nuclear revival in Germany is unrealistic.
• Romania flags ‘national security risk’ in the sale of  E.ON Energie Romania to Hungary’s MVM Group.
• Russia to supply the breakaway region of Transnistria with gas, as a ‘humanitarian gesture’.
• The EU is considering lifting its oil, gas, banking and transportation sanctions on Syria.
• Oil declines slightly as markets await Trump’s move to curb Russian exports.

Investment Funds

• Investment funds increased their net long position to +29.05m EUAs on January 10th (vs. +19.63m EUAs on January 3rd).
• Gross short positions slightly increased to -39.52m EUAs (vs. - 39.01m EUAs).
• Gross long positions increased to 68.57m EUAs (vs. 58.64m  EUAs).

Market Prices:

• Indicative Dec25 EUA Price: €78.85
• Indicative Spot EUA Price: €76.77
• YTD Spot EUA Price: €73.71
• MTD Spot EUA Price: €73.71

Chart A: December 2025 EUA Price (EUR)

Technical Analysis

‍From a technical perspective, the Dec 25 EUA contract is currently trading near its 100% Fibonacci retracement level at €80.48, which is acting as a key resistance point. It remains above its MA 20 at €74.17, its MA 50 at €71.38, and MA 100 at €69.14, as well as the upper Bollinger Bands at €80.95. The RSI and CCI indicators are in overbought territory, signalling a potential short-term consolidation or pullback. However, rising volume indicates strong buyer interest, supporting the uptrend. If the price closes above the 100% Fibonacci level at €80.48, further upward movement toward €85.00 could be expected. On the other hand, a pullback may target the Fibonacci 23.6% retracement level at €76.61, followed by the MA20, MA50 and MA100.

‍Chart B: December 2025 EUA Price (EUR) - Technical

AFS ENERGY B.V.

The information contained in the AFS Energy EU ETS Report, hereinafter Report, has been compiled or arrived from sources believed to be reliable but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to their accuracy, completeness, timeliness, correct sequencing or correctness.

AFS Energy B.V. does not accept any liability, contingent otherwise for (i) the accuracy, completeness, timeliness or correctness of any information provided in the Report, (ii) any decision made, or action taken by you in reliance upon any of them and (iii) any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of the Report. AFS Energy B.V. does not make any representation or warranty about the suitability of the information in the Report.

The information contained in the Report is published for the assistance of the recipient but is not to be relied upon as authoritative or taken in substitution for the exercise of judgement by any recipient.