EUAs recorded its third weekly gain in a month, as modest buying outweighed persistent selling pressure. Throughout the week, they moved closely in line with the Dutch TTF. Further market movements are expected due to rising gas demand.

For this week, there is a possibility that EUAs will remain flat or exhibit a bullish trend in tandem with global gas prices. Higher temperatures in Asia and Europe have increased gas demand for cooling purposes. This, combined with geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine has led to the TTF gas price reaching an eight-month high. As a result, EUAs may trade sideways in a more neutral trajectory this week, with increased volatility expected toward the end of the week.  

Auction volume: 11.1 million EUAs , 2.3  million less than last week

Energy Fundamentals

• Gas storage sits at 89.4% full on August 17th, compared to 90.4% on August 17th, 2023
• Economic Indicators Improve
• Europe's gas emissions drops by 4%,
• Poland launches 5 billion from EU recovery fund to quicken up offshore wind development plan in Baltic Sea
• Concerns in Europe's wind and energy market due to Chinese influences
• Oil falls by 2%, focusing on China demand concerns

Investment Funds

• The net short speculative position held by investment funds decreased to -14.9m EUAs on August 9th (vs. -19.04m EUAs on August 2nd).
• Gross short positions decreased to -50.63 m EUAs (vs. -56.94 m EUAs).
• Gross long positions decreased to 35.37 m EUAs (vs. 37.89m EUAs).

Market Prices:

• Indicative Dec24 EUA Price: €72.40
• Indicative Spot EUA Price: €71.40
• YTD Dec24 EUA Price: €66.48
• MTD Dec24 EUA Price: €71.14

Chart A: December 2024 EUA Price (EUR)

Technical Analysis
The daily chart's MACD appears to be about to cross its lines, indicating a possible shift in direction in a few days. Additionally, the presence of an overbought area in the CCI could corroborate an invert. However, the price is still moving in an upward channel, so if it breaks, we might see levels around 70.50 or perhaps 69.30. Targets for the upside would be 73.19, 73.79, and 75 EUR, which remains a strong barrier.

Chart B: December 2024 EUA Price (EUR) - Technical

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