Previous Week Events:

In the previous week, EUAs posted a gain of 6.3% for the week, with prices reaching a 7-month high. This movement closely followed Dutch TTF prices, which rose significantly after the complete halt of Russian gas transit via Ukraine.

For this week, there is a possible scenario in which EUAs trade in a sideways range, as the market is expected to stabilize following the significant increase in prices over the past few weeks. EUA auctions will begin this week, potentially contributing to a renewed bearish sentiment in the market. However, as gas reserves are low compared to previous years and weather forecasts are colder than expected for Northern and Western Europe, there is a chance that prices will increase, depending on how the situation develops. For these reasons, EUAs are likely to continue trading in close correlation with Dutch TTF throughout the week, until additional news and changes in the weather forecast will confirm their further direction.

Auction volume: 10  million EUAs, first week of Auction in 2025

Energy Fundamentals

• EUA auctions will continue from the 7th of January.
• Gas storage sits at 70.3% full on January 4th vs. 85.4% last year.
• Russian gas transfers to Europe via Ukraine  ended, as transit was stopped on New Year’s Day.
• Northwest Europe braces for colder weather, while Southern Europe and the Balkans face warmer conditions.
• Moldova is set to import gas from Europe, as industry in Transnistria shuts down due to the lack of gas.
• Moldova’s prime minister warns of a security crisis following the cease of Russian gas flows.
• The EU had the overall cleanest power generation in 2024, with emissions dropping 59% from 1990 levels and wholesale electricity prices dropping by 16% compared to 2023.
• Oil prices posted a decrease today, as the US dollar strengthened.

Investment Funds

• Investment funds increased their net long position to +4.55m EUAs on December 27th (vs. +1m EUAs on December 20th).
• Gross short positions decreased to -48.58m EUAs (vs. - 50.12m EUAs).
• Gross long positions increased to 53.13m EUAs (vs. 51.11m  EUAs).

Market Prices:

• Indicative Dec25 EUA Price: €74.69
• Indicative Spot EUA Price: €72.72
• YTD Spot EUA Price: €73.5
• MTD Spot EUA Price: €73.5

Chart A: December 2025 EUA Price (EUR)

Technical Analysis

From a technical point of view, the Dec25 EUA contract is currently trading around its 23.6% Fibonacci level at 74.62 EUR. It is above its MA 20 (69.87 EUR), MA 50 (69.59 EUR), and MA 100 (68.94 EUR), as well as the middle of the Bollinger Bands, currently at 69.28 EUR. The CCI oscillator is in overbought territory, signalling a potential further decrease in price. However, since the RSI still has some room before entering overbought territory, we might see a slight, short-term price recovery. Taking these factors into account, a possible scenario is that the Dec25 EUA prices will trade below the 74.62 EUR level, especially if the price closes below this level today. In this scenario, the MA 20, 50, and 100, the mid Bollinger Bands, and, most importantly, the Fibonacci 38.2% level at 70.53 EUR, could act as significant points of support.

Chart B: December 2025 EUA Price (EUR) - Technical

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