Previous Week Events:

Last week, the Dec25 EUA contract had a volatile session, rebounding from its yearly low on Wednesday after the U.S. announced a 90-day pause on tariffs for all countries except China. The contract recorded a 4.4% gain on Friday, the strongest one-day increase since December, and finished the week up by 1.6%.

In the week ahead, there is a possible scenario that EUAs could trade in a sideways to bullish direction. The prospects of a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire appear increasingly distant, while the U.S. shows greater openness to negotiations and adjustments to its tariff policy. The EU also needs to begin refilling its gas reserves, which could drive EUA prices higher. However, expanding renewable energy capacity—expected to reach record levels this year—and the risk of an escalating U.S.-China trade war may weigh on the market. Additionally, with the market closed on Friday and Monday for the Easter holiday, price sensitivity could be heightened. As a result, EUA prices are likely to remain highly responsive to new developments in international trade.

Auction volume: 12 million EUAs, 0.65 million more than last week

Energy Fundamentals

• Gas storage sits at 35.1% full on April 12th.
• The US issued a 90 day pause for the ‘liberation day’ tariffs, applicable to all countries except China, which is still subject to a 145% tariff on its exports.
• China raised its tariffs on all US imports to 125%, as retaliation.
• EU member states agreed on retaliatory tariffs on the US, which they postponed for 90 days.
• The EU is set to install a record renewable capacity in 2025, despite facing multiple headwinds.
• Russia’s deadly attack on Sumy, leaving 34 dead and 117 wounded, might delay the prospect of a ceasefire.
• LNG imports to Europe from the US were higher than Russian imports in Q1 2025.
• European natural gas prices rise following the US’s tariff pause.
• Oil prices continue to decline amidst the uncertainty of the new US trade policy

Investment Funds .

• Investment funds reduced their net long position to +15.78m EUAs on April 4th (vs. +30.28m EUAs on March 28th).
• Gross short positions increased to -43.3m EUAs (vs. -41.71m EUAs).
• Gross long positions decreased to 59.09m EUAs (vs. 71.99m  EUAs).

Market Prices:

• Indicative Dec25 EUA Price: €66.04
• Indicative Spot EUA Price: €64.91
• YTD Spot EUA Price: €72.1025
• MTD Spot EUA Price: €63.4

Chart A: December 2025 EUA Price (EUR)

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, the Dec25 EUA contract is currently trading above its 23.6% Fibonacci level at €65.84 (30.01.2025). This follows a strong rebound from its weekly low at the 0% Fibonacci level at €60.08 (30.01.2025). The price is currently trading below its 100-day moving average at €72.60, the 50-day MA at €71.60, and the 20-day MA at €67.76. It is also trading below the middle of the Bollinger Bands at €67.76. The CCI and RSI have risen from their oversold levels, but they are currently mid-range and below overbought levels, which signals a possible continuation of the upward movement. If this happens, levels to watch are the 50% Fibonacci level at €67.41 (19.03.2025) and the 61.8% Fibonacci level at €68.80 (19.03.2025). A decline would likely move the price towards the 23.6% Fibonacci level at €63.42 (19.03.2025). The market currently seems to be recovering from its oversold levels, although caution is advised, as volatility is set to remain high, especially since we are looking at a four-day trading week.

Chart B: December 2025 EUA Price (EUR) - Technical

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