Previous Week Events:

In the previous week, the Dec25 EUA contract dropped close to its lowest level this year, as widespread panic within the global financial markets has also spread to EUAs and commodities. The contract settled 3.4% lower on Friday and 7.2% lower for the week, marking the second largest weekly decrease of this year.

For this week, there is a possible scenario that EUAs will continue to move in line with the overall decline across all global markets caused by the imposition of trade tariffs from the US. We have already seen EUAs opening lower, following a global price decline across the board. Similar movements can be observed throughout the oil and gas markets. There is a chance that we see some recovery as compliance buyers might step in, but we expect the beginning of the week to be extremely volatile and for EUAs, with a high chance they could follow suit in the global sell-off that is currently happening across all markets. There is also a strong chance that prices will react strongly to new geopolitical developments, particularly to tariff-related ones.

Auction volume: 11.34 million EUAs, 2.06 million less than last week

Energy Fundamentals

• Gas storage sits at 34.8% full on April 5th.
• Donald Trump announced a series of tariffs on Tuesday, unleashing chaos across financial markets.
• Fossil fuels generated less than 50% of the energy consumed in March in the US for the first time ever.
• China responded to the US with a 34% tariff on all US imports.
• The EU delays the publication of its 2040 climate target, as pressure from member states mounts up.
• Russia is postponing a ceasefire as it intensifies attacks on Ukraine.
• CO2 emissions in the EU dropped 5% in 2024,in line with its 2030 target.
• EU member states are trying to negotiate a looser gas storage-filling target.
• Oil prices slump on trade risk and tariff uncertainty.

Investment Funds .

• Investment funds reduced their net long position to +30.28m EUAs on March 28th (vs. +33.34m EUAs on March 21st).
• Gross short positions decreased to -41.71m EUAs (vs. -49.03m EUAs).
• Gross long positions increased to 71.99m EUAs (vs. 82.36m  EUAs).

Market Prices:

• Indicative Dec25 EUA Price: €60.90
• Indicative Spot EUA Price: €59.83
• YTD Spot EUA Price: €72.9
• MTD Spot EUA Price: €65.81
  

Chart A: December 2025 EUA Price (EUR)

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, the Dec25 EUA contract is currently trading below its 61.8% Fibonacci level (23.02.2024) at 63.78 € and above its 100% Fibonacci level (23.02.2024) at 54.06 €. It is also trading below its MA20 at 69.26 €, MA50 at 73.46 €, and MA100 at 72.97 €. The MACD, RSI, and CCI indicators are all in oversold territory, while the price is trading below the lower end of the Bollinger Bands at 63.43 €. Technical data suggests a potential price recovery, as the oscillators are in oversold conditions, and the price is below its moving averages and Bollinger Bands, at its lowest point of the year. However, caution is advised, as this movement follows a global sell-off in financial markets, and high volatility is expected.

Chart B: December 2025 EUA Price (EUR) - Technical

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