In Week 14, there was a mid-week price decline attributed to the release of 2023 emissions data. However, by Friday, the price had nearly rebounded fully, experiencing only a slight dip for the week. This resilience underscores the ongoing correlation between prices and TTF prices. 

Auction volume: 13.4 million EUAs, 5.4 million more than last week.

Presently, the prevailing bearish energy fundamentals may imply a potential decline in EUA prices. Nevertheless, the presence of geopolitical risks could temper this downward movement to some extent. In essence, we anticipate EUAs to exhibit neutral to bearish behaviour this week.

On March 28, gas storage reached a level of 57.3% full, showing a slight increase from 55.48% in the previous year. Meanwhile, anticipation builds for the release of official emission data for 2023 scheduled for Wednesday, April 3. Europe experienced record-breaking temperatures throughout March, intensifying concerns about climate change. In the energy sector, oil prices surged amid expectations of higher demand and growing concerns over tensions in the Middle East. France demonstrated a significant boost in nuclear output, reaching three-year highs in the first quarter of 2024, signalling a commitment to clean energy. Additionally, Poland's power firms reduced coal consumption while maintaining output levels, reflecting efforts towards cleaner energy production. Germany continued its transition towards renewable energy by shutting down 15 coal-fired power plants, emphasising the nation's dedication to reducing carbon emissions and combating climate change.

Technical Analysis

The technical analysis remains largely consistent with previous weeks. Despite an attempt to break the uptrend channel, the price on Friday retraced and failed to re-enter. Fibonacci levels continue to exert influence, with the first support at 58.95, followed by 58.20, 57.43, and a significant level at 55.90. The FSI indicates a potential crossover, suggesting a reversal in the trend may be imminent, possibly resulting in a further price decline.

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‍AFS ENERGY B.V.

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