Previous Week Events:

Last week, EUAs experienced their sixth weekly loss in eight weeks, posting a 0.4% gain on Friday but ultimately ending the week with a 3.7% loss. Their price dropped significantly following France’s proposal to impose price restrictions on the EU ETS to curb market volatility.

Looking ahead, EUA prices are expected to react strongly to the final decision on US tariffs, due on April 2nd. Additionally, the market may respond to potential new US sanctions on Russia and, more importantly, on countries buying oil from Russia. With discussions underway regarding changes to the 2040 climate targets, the EU ETS mechanism, energy laws, and the CBAM, any developments in these areas could also significantly influence the market. For these reasons, there is a possible scenario of this being a volatile week, with strong reactions to any updates on the aforementioned topics.

Auction volume: 13.42 million EUAs, 2.06 million more than last week

Energy Fundamentals

• Gas storage sits at 33.8% full on March 30th.
• France demands that the EU restricts EU ETS prices to reduce market volatility.
• Italy and France call for changes to the CBAM, to prevent the exodus of industries.
• The EU is considering setting a weaker 2040 climate goal.
• Trump is set to impose reciprocal tariffs that will target ‘all countries’, erasing hopes of a softer trade policy.
• The US threatened to impose a 25% tariff on Russian oil and goods coming to the US, and a 50% tariff on all countries buying Russian oil, unless Russia agrees to a ceasefire deal in Ukraine.
• The EU will delay its retaliatory tariffs on the US until mid-April, to have more time for discussion.
• Iran is open to indirect negotiations with the US over a nuclear deal, while the US is threatening with bombings.
• The European Commission is considering changes to energy laws, to reduce bureaucratic processes.
• Oil edges higher on news of new US-Russia sanctions.

Investment Funds .

• Investment funds reduced their net long position to +33.34m EUAs on March 21st (vs. +31.10m EUAs on March 14th).
• Gross short positions decreased to -49.03m EUAs (vs. -50.69m EUAs).
• Gross long positions increased to 82.36m EUAs (vs. 81.79m  EUAs).

Market Prices:

• Indicative Dec25 EUA Price: €68.18
• Indicative Spot EUA Price: €66.86
• YTD Spot EUA Price: €73.45
• MTD Spot EUA Price: €68.6375

Chart A: December 2025 EUA Price (EUR)

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, the Dec25 EUA contract is currently trading above the 0% Fibonacci level (from 30.01.2025) at €66.70. This represents a significant level for the Dec25 contract, as it marks its lowest price of the year. A move below this level could potentially trigger further downside momentum, setting a new low for the year. The MACD, CCI, and RSI are all in neutral territory following a significant decline. However, this setup suggests that momentum could favour a continued price decrease until these indicators reach oversold conditions. On the other hand, if the market moves upwards, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement (from 30.01.2025) at €70.91 and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement (from 17.12.2024) at €71.84 are key resistance levels. Additionally, the middle of the Bollinger Bands (currently at €69.83), the 20-day MA at €68.83, the 50-day MA at €74.88, and the 100-day MA at €73.14 all represent significant resistance levels should the price start trending upwards.

Chart B: December 2025 EUA Price (EUR) - Technical

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