In the previous week, after a strong rise on Monday, EUAs erased most of their gains and only registered a marginal increase for the week. This was partly due to an increase in Rotterdam Coal prices, fuelling a bearish trajectory for EUAs. 

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Auction volume: 8 million EUAs, 2.6 million less than last week.

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This week, we expect EUAs to react to the 2023 emissions data published on Wednesday, the 3rd of April. Until then, as there are currently no bullish fundamentals on the horizon, we expect EUAs to continue trading sideways, with a possible continuation of a bearish trend. Our outlook for the week suggests significant volatility, with future price movements strongly depending on how the 2023 emissions data aligns with the existing market expectations.

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On March 28, gas storage reached a level of 57.3% full, showing a slight increase from 55.48% in the previous year. Meanwhile, anticipation builds for the release of official emission data for 2023 scheduled for Wednesday, April 3. Europe experienced record-breaking temperatures throughout March, intensifying concerns about climate change. In the energy sector, oil prices surged amid expectations of higher demand and growing concerns over tensions in the Middle East. France demonstrated a significant boost in nuclear output, reaching three-year highs in the first quarter of 2024, signaling a commitment to clean energy. Additionally, Poland's power firms reduced coal consumption while maintaining output levels, reflecting efforts towards cleaner energy production. Germany continued its transition towards renewable energy by shutting down 15 coal-fired power plants, emphasizing the nation's dedication to reducing carbon emissions and combating climate change.

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Technical Analysis

EUAs continue to trade within an upward trend channel, having touched its lower boundary on Monday morning. There is a potential for further upward movement, with a target of 67 EUR in sight. However, if today's price closes below 60.50, the subsequent targets would be 58.90 and 58.20. The ultimate target for bearish movement this week lies at 55.70, which aligns with the lower bound of Bollinger's Band and corresponds to the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement level.

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AFS ENERGY B.V.

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