Previous Week Events:

Last week, EUAs experienced a 2.1% daily loss on Friday but still posted a 0.7% increase for the week. The correlation with the front-month Dutch TTF contract was notably stronger throughout this week than in the previous one.

Looking ahead to the coming week, we expect market volatility to remain elevated as participants closely monitor peace talks between the US, Ukraine, and Russia in Saudi Arabia. Additionally, with the EU pushing for increased defence spending on top of the ‘ReArm’ EU package, markets may begin to price in a future rise in demand for EUAs. Such a movement could also be supported by higher natural gas prices, as the EU needs to start rebuilding its gas inventory ahead of next winter. However, renewable energy generation reached record levels in 2024, and strong growth is expected to continue in this sector. Additionally, the market is likely to have a strong reaction to the potential publication of the EU’s 2040 climate targets, in case it happens this week.

Auction volume: 11.34 million EUAs, 2.06 million less than last week

Energy Fundamentals

• Gas storage sits at 34.0% full on March 23rd.
• The March Options contract is expiring Wednesday, 26.03.2025,
• The US is currently mediating peace discussions between Russia and Ukraine in Saudi Arabia.
• As the peace talks are happening, violent exchanges between Russia and Ukraine continue.
• The EU is developing a plan for green steel production, to meet increased demand from the defence sector.
• Europe is set to publish its 2040 climate target by the end of the month, but a delay is expected.
• European leaders push for even more defence spending, on top of the $867 billion ‘ReArm’ package.
• In the EU, energy from renewable sources reached 47% of total energy production in 2024.
• Imports of energy products to the EU have also decreased significantly in 2024.
• A new IEA report shows that renewable power capacity rose by about 700 gigawatts (GW) in 2024, setting an annual record for the 22nd consecutive year.
• Oil prices rise on news of new sanctions on Iran and US-Russia-Ukraine peace talks.

Investment Funds .

• Investment funds reduced their net long position to +31.10m EUAs on March 7th (vs. +36.38m EUAs on February 28th).
• Gross short positions increased to -50.69m EUAs (vs. -44.91m EUAs).
• Gross long positions stayed almost the same at 81.29m EUAs (vs. 81.29m  EUAs).

Market Prices:

• Indicative Dec25 EUA Price: €71.29
• Indicative Spot EUA Price: €69.82
• YTD Spot EUA Price: €73.88
• MTD Spot EUA Price: €68.649

Chart A: December 2025 EUA Price (EUR)

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, the Dec25 EUA contract is currently trading above its 23.6% level in the large Fibonacci (from 30.01.2025) at 70.93 EUR. It is also trading above the middle of the Bollinger Bands at 70.47 EUR and above its MA20 at 70.46 EUR. However, the price is trading below MA50 at 75.83 EUR and the MA100 at 73.02 EUR. The MACD and RSI have moved upwards from oversold territory and are currently sitting at neutral levels. On the small Fibonacci (from 06.03.2025), the price is just below the 38.2% level at 71.40 EUR. With the expiry of the March options contract on Wednesday, increased market volatility is expected. The MACD and RSI have moved to neutral territory from oversold territory, which suggests there might still be some room for an upward movement. The next levels to watch are the 23.6% level on the small Fibonacci at 72.50 EUR and the 38.2% level on the large Fibonacci at 73.51 EUR. If the price moves downwards, the key levels to watch are the 50% level on the small Fibonacci at 70.51 EUR and the 61.8% level on the small Fibonacci at 69.62 EUR.

Chart B: December 2025 EUA Price (EUR) - Technical

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