Previous Week Events:

Last week, the Dec25 EUA contract posted their first weekly gain since January, rising by 3.4%, with a 0.6% increase on Friday. This week, the correlation between EUAs and Dutch TTF was weak.

Looking ahead, there is a possibility that prices might continue to respond strongly to developments surrounding the Ukrainian peace plan, especially with important talks scheduled for Tuesday between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin. Additionally, any announcement regarding new US tariffs could significantly influence the market as well. On the downside, any delays in implementing the ReArm EU package may exert downward pressure on EUA prices, by reducing the expectations for future energy demand in Europe. A downward movement might also be strengthened by the EU's efforts to speed up the implementation of renewable energy projects at the government level and the potential implementation of a softer target for the EU gas reserve.

Auction volume: 13.4 million EUAs, 2.06 million more than last week

Energy Fundamentals

• Gas storage sits at 34.8% full on March 16th.
• Trump will speak to Putin on Tuesday, to discuss a peace plan for Ukraine.
• Russia demands solid guarantees that a peace deal will exclude Ukraine’s NATO membership.
• Ukrainian soldiers are retreating from the Kursk region, after strong Russian offensives in the region.
• Trump halts plans on raising tariffs to 50% on aluminum and steel coming from Canada.
• Canada and the EU retaliate against the US’s 25% tariff on steel and aluminum.
• EU countries have drafted a plan to soften gas storage targets.
• The Dutch parliament objected to the ReArm EU package, due to concerns over national debt.
• The EU lays out a plan to speed up aid for renewable projects for each individual government.
• Oil prices rebound after China plans to boost consumption.

Investment Funds .

• Investment funds reduced their net long position to +36.38m EUAs on March 7th (vs. +42.28m EUAs on February 28th).
• Gross short positions stayed almost the same at -44.91m EUAs (vs. -44.71m EUAs).
• Gross long positions decreased to 81.29m EUAs (vs. 86.99m  EUAs).

Market Prices:

• Indicative Dec25 EUA Price: €70.35
• Indicative Spot EUA Price: €68,83
• YTD Spot EUA Price: €74.22
• MTD Spot EUA Price: €67.803
  

Chart A: December 2025 EUA Price (EUR)

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, the Dec25 contract is currently trading just below its 23.6% Fibonacci level at 70.96€. It is also trading just below the middle of the Bollinger Bands and the MA20, both currently sitting at 70.91€. These levels represent significant resistance points, and if broken, they could potentially lead to a further price increase. Conversely, a downside reversal could push the price towards the 0% Fibonacci level at 66.75€ and the lower end of the Bollinger Bands, currently at 66.34€. With both the CCI and RSI in neutral territory, near their mid-ranges, the market appears to be in "wait and see" mode, awaiting a stronger move to determine its future direction.

Chart B: December 2025 EUA Price (EUR) - Technical

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