Previous Week Events:

EUAs posted their fifth consecutive weekly decline last week, dropping by 3.3% after a 2% price increase on Friday. The rise at the end of the week could be attributed to potential new US sanctions on Russia and an increase in future energy demand driven by the ReArm EU initiative.

For the week ahead, the meeting between US and Ukrainian officials could play a significant role in price action, as market participants will be closely monitoring developments regarding a potential ceasefire and peace deal. Consequently, progress towards peace in Ukraine might drive prices downwards. On the other hand, a future increase in European defense spending might also push prices higher. Furthermore, with gas reserves at historically low levels, demand for gas is expected to remain robust.

Auction volume: 11.34  million EUAs, 2.06 million less than last week

Energy Fundamentals

• Gas storage sits at 36.8% full on March 9th
• Trump expands the range of goods from Canada and Mexico that are exempt from tariffs.
• The US is strongly considering large scale sanctions and tariffs on Russia.
• US officials are set to meet with Ukrainian officials in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday, over new peace talks.
• Russia is advancing in the Kursk region, threatening Ukraine’s bargaining power in peace discussions.
• Ursula von der Lyen unveils ‘ReArm Europe’, a five-step plan for the EU to increase its military capability by up to €800 billion.
• Germany proposes a plan to spend up to €1 trillion on defence over the next decade.
• France opens up discussions for an extended nuclear shield in Europe.
• Germany advocates for stronger EU Nuclear capabilities to strengthen the existing US shield.
• EU members approve for Poland to allocate 30% more free EUAs to its heating sector.
• Oil prices start the week in red, as tariffs are expected to affect demand and economic growth.

Investment Funds .

• Investment funds reduced their net long position to +42.28m EUAs on February 28th (vs. +50.32m EUAs on February 21st).
• Gross short positions increased  to -44.71m EUAs (vs. -43.19m EUAs).
• Gross long positions decreased to 86.99m EUAs (vs. 93.52m  EUAs).

Market Prices:

• Indicative Dec25 EUA Price: €69.97
• Indicative Spot EUA Price: €68.43
• YTD Spot EUA Price: €74.86
• MTD Spot EUA Price: €67.424
  

Chart A: December 2025 EUA Price (EUR)

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, the EUA Dec25 benchmark contract is currently trading below the Fibonacci 23.6% level (small Fibonacci, 31.01.2025) at €70.89 and the Fibonacci 61.8% level (large Fibonacci, 17.12.2024) at €71.83. It is also trading below its MA 100 at €72.60, MA 50 at €76.48, and MA 20 at €73.32. At the same time, the MACD, CCI, and RSI are all in oversold territory. This suggests a possible scenario where the price might move towards the €70.89 and €71.83 levels. However, if the Dec25 contract moves below €66.70 (0% level on small Fibonacci 31.01.2025), it could drive the price further down towards the lower end of the Bollinger Bands, currently at €64.69.

Chart B: December 2025 EUA Price (EUR) - Technical

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