Previous Week Events:

In the previous week, the Dec25 EUA contract registered a 3.9% decline, following a 2.5% drop on Friday. The total price decline for the month was 15%, with EUAs posting their largest drop in February over the last nine years.

For the week ahead, there is a possibility that increased price volatility might continue, as markets remain uncertain due to the ongoing Ukrainian war and the role of the US in future peace talks. Additionally, the tariffs that the US is set to impose on Mexico and Canada starting March 4th may further contribute to market fluctuations. On the other hand, the EU's discussions around a more flexible policy on gas storage for member states, along with the continued growth of renewable energy output might put pressure on EUA prices. Nevertheless, the market will likely react strongly to any developments regarding tariffs and the evolution of the peace talks between Ukraine, Russia, and the US.

Auction volume: 13.4  million EUAs, 2.1 million more than last week

Energy Fundamentals

• Gas storage sits at 37.9% full on March 2nd
• Zelensky is still ready to sign US - Ukraine mineral deal
• European leaders had agreed to draw up a Ukraine peace plan to present to US
• European leaders defend Zelensky after his meeting with Donald Trump.
• Norway considers using its sovereign fund to drastically increase support for Ukraine.
• Russia supports the US policy pivot on Ukraine, stating that it aligns with their vision.
• EU governments awarded a record 36.8 GW of wind energy auctions in 2024, 35% more than in 2023.
• The EU plans a ‘more flexible’ policy for member states filling their gas storages.
• Oil prices are steady, as uncertainty over Ukraine and global growth weigh on the market.

Investment Funds .

• Investment funds reduced their net long position to +50.32m EUAs on February 21st(vs. +58.67m EUAs on February 14th).
• Gross short positions decreased to -43.19m EUAs (vs. -46.2m EUAs).
• Gross long positions decreased to 93.52m EUAs (vs. 104.874m  EUAs).

Market Prices:

• Indicative Dec25 EUA Price: €72.11
• Indicative Spot EUA Price: €70.57
• YTD Spot EUA Price: €75.75
• MTD Spot EUA Price: €73.3775

Chart A: December 2025 EUA Price (EUR)

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, on the daily chart, EUA Dec25 prices are trading near the 61.80% level on the larger Fibonacci (from 17.12.2024) at around €71.88. The price is currently below the 20-period MA at €78.35, the 50-period MA at €76.27, and the 100-period MA at €72.31. Additionally, both the CCI and RSI indicators show a slight rise after exiting their oversold territory, suggesting potential upward momentum. If the price begins to climb, it could break above the 100-period MA and approach the 23.6% level on the smaller Fibonacci (from 10.02.2025) at €73.90, followed by the 50% level on the larger Fibonacci at €74.30. A decline may bring prices toward the 0% level on the smaller Fibonacci at €70.70, and a move below this level could lead to further downside, potentially testing the lower end of the Bollinger Bands, which is currently sitting at €68.33.

Chart B: December 2025 EUA Price (EUR) - Technical

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