Previous Week Events:

In the previous week, EUAs registered a total loss, despite posting a daily gain of 1.9% on Friday following news of new US sanctions on Russia.

For this week, there is a possible scenario in which we may see EUAs trading in a sideways to bullish range, as global oil and natural gas supply disruptions continue following the US's new set of sanctions on Russia. Furthermore, a colder-than-expected weather forecast could lead to the EU depleting its gas reserves faster, which are currently much lower on a year-over-year basis. This could drive up demand for gas, making coal a more attractive resource for energy generation and, consequently, this could lead to an increase in EUA demand. For this reason, we expect the market to react strongly to new weather forecasts, waiting for additional news to confirm its direction.

Auction volume: 11.75  million EUAs, 1.75 million more than last week

Energy Fundamentals

• Gas storage sits at 66.4% full on January 11th vs. 80.9% last year.
• The US puts new sanctions on Russian and Chinese oil tankers.
• Azerbaijan interrupted gas deliveries to Bulgaria and Serbia over a technical issue.
• Dutch TTF prices registered a 10% drop this year, as supply concerns ease.
• Norway registered a record production of natural gas in 2024.
• In 2024, 62.7% of Germany’s total energy generation came from renewable sources.
• In 2025, the EU’s wind farms are set to produce more electricity than the region’s coal-fired power plants for the first time in history.
• Oil prices rise following the new set of US sanctions on Russia.

Investment Funds

• Investment funds increased their net long position to +19.63m EUAs on January 3rd (vs. +4.55m EUAs on December 27th).
• Gross short positions decreased to -39.01m EUAs (vs. - 48.58m EUAs).
• Gross long positions increased to 58.64m EUAs (vs. 53.13m  EUAs).

Market Prices:

• Indicative Dec25 EUA Price: €76.66
• Indicative Spot EUA Price: €74.57
• YTD Spot EUA Price: €72.26
• MTD Spot EUA Price: €72.26

Chart A: December 2025 EUA Price (EUR)

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, on the hourly chart, the Dec 25 EUA contract is currently trading near its Fibonacci 38.2% level at 76.25 EUR. It is also trading above its MA 20 at 73.48 EUR, MA 50 at 73.46 EUR, and MA 100 at 73.33 EUR, and just above the upper Bollinger Bands at 75.85 EUR. The MACD is approaching its overbought level, while both the RSI and CCI indicators are already in overbought territory, signalling a possible short-term continuation of the uptrend, potentially followed by a price retracement. This might be confirmed by the double top pattern forming on the chart as well, marked by the red line. If the price starts descending, key levels to watch include the Fibonacci 23.6% retracement at 74.46 EUR, the moving averages, and the middle of the Bollinger Bands around 73.74 EUR. However, if the price closes the day above the red line and the 38.2% Fibonacci level at 76.25 EUR, we could see further upward movement toward the Fibonacci 61.8% level at 79.14 EUR and the middle of the Bollinger Bands, currently around 73.74 EUR.

Chart B: December 2025 EUA Price (EUR) - Technical

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